IFS warns U.S. population could start declining in the 2050s

A new Institute for Family Studies report says America’s fertility collapse could push the U.S. population into long-term decline sooner than many forecasts expect. The report pairs that warning with policy ideas aimed at boosting family formation and closing the gap between how many children Americans want and how many they have.

Why it matters: - The Institute for Family Studies says the U.S. is on track for population decline in the 2050s unless fertility trends change. - A smaller population would affect labor supply, public finances, family policy and long-term economic growth. - The report argues that culture and policy both shape whether Americans have more children.

What happened: - The Institute for Family Studies released a report by Dr. Lyman Stone and Peter Foreshaw Brookes titled The Demographic Dead End: Without Action, American Population Will Soon Decline. - The report says American fertility has fallen to record lows. - The report projects that the total U.S. population will peak in the 2050s and then begin a long decline if current trends continue. - Stone said the population could peak in 2054 before entering what he called Japanese-style decline.

The details: - The report’s forecast puts the U.S. population peak at about 351 million. - The forecast assumes fertility keeps falling and immigration stays lower than many popular forecasts expect. - The report says the U.S. fertility rate has dropped to 1.6 children per woman. - Americans still say they want 2.4 children on average, widening the gap between desired and actual family size. - The report says helpful friends can raise couples’ intention to have another child by 10 percentage points. - The report proposes “American Birthday Accounts,” which would invest $15,000 in the name of each child. - Stone said the idea would shift family policy away from taxing workers to subsidize parents and toward using market returns to support families.

Between the lines: - The report is also a critique of mainstream demographic forecasting, which it says is too optimistic about future population growth. - The emphasis on culture suggests the authors see fertility as influenced by social norms, not just economics. - The policy proposal signals a preference for market-based incentives over direct transfers.

What’s next: - The report calls for bold changes to American family policy and culture if leaders want to avoid long-term population decline. - The authors say the next step is to test new approaches that could close the gap between desired and actual fertility. - The Institute for Family Studies is using the report to advance its pronatalism agenda and public education efforts.

The bottom line: - Without intervention, the report says America’s fertility slide could move the country from slowdown to outright population decline within about three decades.